As we move into the second half of 2025, we're keeping a close eye on several economic and geopolitical developments that are shaping the trajectory of the steel plate market. While steel plate prices have largely stabilized after a volatile start to the year, broader market conditions continue to shift in ways that require attention. Below, I've highlighted key areas I'm watching closely.
Following price increases early in the year, steel plate prices began to level off in late Q2. Despite some mill price cuts in May and typical summer slowdowns, overall pricing remains relatively stable. According to several indexes, May marked the first slight dip in plate prices after multiple consecutive months of increases, signaling the top was likely set for 2025.
Despite this, underlying demand remains healthy. Analysts still anticipate plate demand to rise slightly through the end of 2025, driven by infrastructure investment, onshoring initiatives and robust construction spending”even amid broader economic headwinds. That said, service center inventories remain elevated in some regions, and continued macroeconomic uncertainty could temper ordering patterns.
According to October's 2024 Short Range Outlook Report, it was predicted that global steel demand would finally rebound by 1.2% in 2025 to reach 1,772 Mt after three years of decline. However, the April 2025 Short Range Outlook Report has been postponed due to the imposition of tariffs by U.S. administration, which could render the SRO outdated.
In June 2025, the Federal Reserve opted to maintain the fed funds target range at 4.25%-4.50% for a fourth consecutive meeting, in line with expectations, as policymakers take a cautious stance to fully evaluate the economic impact of President Trump's policies, particularly those related to tariffs, immigration and taxation.
Inflation increased for the first time in four months to 2.4% in May 2025, which is the lowest reading since 2021 and below expectations of 2.5%. As a result, the Federal Reserve slowed their overall outlook for rate cuts in response to a more challenging outlook of weaker economic growth, rising joblessness and faster price increases. It was noted that if it wasn't for tariffs, rate cuts might have happened, given that recent inflation readings have been favorably low. As of early July, policymakers are predicting an average of 2.6 rate cuts in the back half of 2025, or about 65 basis points.
Since interest rates and fiscal policies have a major impact on consumer and business demand - and, by extension, the broader economy - I'll be keeping a close eye on these factors through the rest of 2025.
The steel market is feeling the ripple effects of renewed trade tensions. In March, President Trump enacted sweeping tariffs”25% on Canadian and Mexican steel, a doubling of Chinese steel duties to 20% and eventually 50% across all steel and aluminum imports in June.
These actions ignited swift retaliation from major U.S. trading partners and stoked fears of prolonged trade conflict. While some view the tariffs as a boost to domestic manufacturing, others warn of unintended consequences, such as price inflation, reduced industrial activity and increased volatility in the market. Goldman Sachs analysts recently noted that elevated metal prices could further suppress demand from manufacturing sectors that are already showing signs of contraction.
In short, while protectionist measures may support price stability in the near term, they also introduce a level of uncertainty that requires cautious planning and strong communication between suppliers and customers.
The past few years have taught us the importance of supply chain visibility and agility. Even as global logistics have improved compared to pandemic-era disruptions, new challenges”tariff pressures, material shortages and extended lead times”continue to test the resilience of the steel supply chain.
Import volumes have fluctuated in response to these pressures. After a surge earlier in the year, April steel imports fell 17.1% month-over-month as new tariffs took effect and buyers adjusted sourcing strategies. Construction spending and durable goods orders remain positive indicators, but manufacturing firms are approaching procurement more conservatively, reinforcing the need for supply chain flexibility heading into the second half of the year.
Despite analyst expectations of steel plate consumption rising slightly in the back half of 2025, broader U.S. manufacturing continues to show signs of contraction. The ISM Manufacturing PMI declined for the third consecutive month in May, dropping to 48.5 after a brief two-month expansion in Q1. Architecture Billings Index (ABI) scores also continued to decline, with April's reading marking the 28th drop in the last 31 months.
This slowdown is being driven by a combination of cost pressures, trade uncertainty and softening consumer confidence, which dropped to 86.0 in April, its lowest level since before the pandemic. While select steel-intensive sectors such as energy production, transmission and infrastructure remain strong, the broader industrial market appears to be entering a more cautious phase.
As always, I encourage our customers and partners to stay informed, remain agile and communicate regularly as we navigate this evolving landscape. Leeco Steel remains committed to providing reliable insights, competitive pricing and the high-quality steel plate you've come to expect.
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